$ORCL · 海外大V持仓追踪

$ORCL 现在是什么情况？

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下面是最近 8 条提及 $ORCL 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-08-13中性原文
  In IPO news… Vantage Data Centers is exploring going public at an enormous $100B valuation. If you’re not familiar, $ORCL is their anchor tenant for Stargate (OpenAI end user), and Vantage develops/operates hyperscaler DCs. Anthropic IPO is also expected, with investors expecting $2T valuation, eclipsing $SPCX per FT. Yeah… idk about Anthropic valuations. Jim Cramer defending that valuation is never a good sign. On a side note, Opus 5 is probably the worst consumer LLM I’ve used to date, it’s like a 5 IQ LLM operating off terrible data retrieval. With a Fable-like God complex on top. Enterprise is probably having a better time though. Unitree IPO is also expected this month and priced it at a $9B valuation. Which is a positive tailwind for Unitree for the humanoid sectors. Not really an AI name but SHEIN is going public as soon as the 19th this month. Go ask any girl you know and they’re probably familiar with this platform.
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• 2026-07-26看空原文
  Just some TLDR news: - $CXMT IPO tomorrow if you like Chinese memory. - Samsung Electronics reportedly struggling to secure large FC-BGA substrates. Ibiden (4062) reportedly requested LTA guarantees, Samsung Electro-Mechanics sought prepayments. - Samsung + $AVGO sign memory + foundry AI framework through 2030, expected to exceed $200b - $SOI expects FY2027 silicon photonics revenue to double compared to the previous year, surpassing Morgan Stanley's 60% growth projection. Photonics thesis go brrr. - SK Group + $NVDA sign $500B+ partnership to build out AI DCs and HBM4 memory. - SKC Absolics glass core delay to 2027 from reports. Targeting final reliability testing EOY, mass production next year. So if you're curious, this does push back some ramps from $LPK and others (hence drop on ER). - $QCOM price hikes by double digits for smartphone processors, due to upstream supplier hike pricing. - $META expected to issue $12B in project-level/SPV financing for El Paso, Texas AI DC expansion - Naver announced a $10 billion investment from $NVDA and Brookfield to construct a 1GW-scale AI Factory. Near term plan is 200MW by 2028. (Nvidia $1B investment, Brookfield nonbinding $9B) - 64GB DDR5 server modules rises 146% versus end-June contract pricing - $INTC brought forward 14A process mass production by a year, risk production H2 2027 and volume production in 2028, vs. 2029 HVM expectations. - Samsung Electro-Mechanics wins $200m MLCC order (existing bottleneck). - $AMD (the Bandana bottleneck), announces Helios is in full production with shipments Q3 2026. Including an up to 2GW MI455X GPU deployment with Anthropic and a 6GW infrastructure rollout with OpenAI. Gave new >50% CAGR TAM to $220B by 2030 from $26b in 2025 for CPU market. Rolls out optical interconnects for Mi500 in 2027. From channel checks, AMD is heading down to the CPO route (seems likely to use Ayar). - $ORCL wins $7B Department of War enterprise software contract - JX metal doubles semi target capacity at its KR subsidary with a 4B yen investment, with operations to begin H2 2027, amid surging demand from major customers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix - Tungsten hexafluoride spot prices surged 2.1-2.5x Y/Y following Japan's Kanto Denka and Chuo Gas announcing permanent production halts. Fluorinated liquid supply faces a vacuum as 3M plans to exit PFAS production. - From the four optical chipmaker earnings, Yuanjie/Eoptolink/TFC Optical/Dongshan Precision: no major order cuts, 1.6T shipments expected to accelerate into 2027. Optical chip suppliers expected to capture outsized margins from shortages. - Unitree Robotics Targets 30,000 Humanoid Robot Production Capacity by 2026. Read through on humanoid TAM scaling like $CCXI and others. - Energy storage lithium batteries orders increase first half orders by 2,900% apparently in China. Not as familiar with EVE Energy and other battery makers.
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• 2026-04-20看多
  怎么还有人仍然做多像 $IREN 这种 F 级 Neocloud。 在 6,000,000,000 美元稀释的情况下？ 而 $NBIS 已经与 $ORCL 和 $MSFT 并列，看起来风险已降低？ https://t.co/vIdzdk4Hqi
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• 2026-04-06中性原文
  The current bottleneck: Transformers/Switchgear. 

Trade Idea: Long Hammond (~2.2B CAD / ~$1.5B USD) at 184 CAD. They dominate the market for: -Transformers (dry, multi year bottleneck ~23% of market), -serve to switchgear (2-3Y bottleneck) -and manufacture liquid too (5Y, larger bottleneck) 
I personally anticipate components price hikes like NAND, as $AMZN, $MSFT and others compete for allocation. 

You might have seen: “Half of US data center builds have been delayed or canceled, growth limited by shortages of power infrastructure”… Then you go further:

“To address shortages… Canada, Mexico… became the biggest suppliers of high-power transformers for AI data centers to AI data centers”

Guess who is in Canada (Guelph).. Mexico (Monterrey 3 and 4)… and the US?

Hammond

Then here’s the reason the articles cite why hyperscaler DB buildouts are falling apart: 
 “Major reason behind these setbacks is the availability of key electrical components — such as transformers, switchgear”.  Institutions are probably looking at Powell, Eaton, and others… but little do they know? Companies like these actually buy Hammond’s transformers to put inside their own switchgear (“strong sales into data centres, switchgear manufacturers")

Their market share over the transformers market is actually pretty large (eg. ~23% dry).  
The most compelling signal:

-> 122% Y/Y 2025 backlog increase. And we can infer this to be 1B+ CAD.  Eg. company achieved 898m CAD in sales in 2025, capacity ceiling. Management said close of Q3 2025 orders were valued at 53% of the entire closing third-quarter backlog. Given that Q4 2025 revenue was 254 million and the backlog is "more than doubled," we can infer a total backlog value exceeding 1 billion CAD. Also: 
“Gross margin compression last year was due to the buildout of their Mexico facility, but both gross margins are expected to increase and the facility expansions are expectied to turn into accelerated revenue Q2 2026)” which is now.

Downside is if raw material costs (copper, electrical steel) spike again, but given this bottleneck, they can price hike. 

Personal FWD P/E estimates would be ~18-21 for 2026, <15 for 2027 from volume ramp. But I think it’s possible to hit single digit fwd P/E if they do price hikes mixed with hyperscaler emergency orders. But that might get a little mixed with the new acquisition. Regardless still looks cheap. 
 Just a TLDR:  
$AMZN, $MSFT, $META, $GOOGL, $ORCL datacenter are being bottlenecked because of a lack of transformers/switchgear.

Seems like markets missed this little player with large market share, despite backlog visibility and increasing revenue from capacity expansion coming online. I personally found it pretty compelling, so I went long. Just sharing my personal thoughts, of course DYOR before making any decisions yourself.
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• 2026-04-01中性原文
  @Jornka329996 How is $AAOI direct to $ORCL, $MSFT, $AMZN, and maybe $META needing new clients? Those are probably the best they can get lol
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• 2026-04-01中性原文
  OpenAI is the tech equivalent of Iran. They would have caused so much contagion - like Iran sending drones to all their neighbors - with funding they didn’t have…. From $MSFT compute backlog, $ORCL Stargate, $AMD deals, $NVDA deals, $CRWV deals, $AMZN deals. SoftBank deals. Deals with private companies like Cerebras and many others. So much so, that if they went down, so would a huge part of what gave these companies their valuations. OpenAI raised a whopping $122B, my guess is partly weaponizing this contagion like what Iran is doing to the Strait. So now the AI capex spend rally is likely to last another 1 year min. They’re the first to start the AI rally; and if they go under, at this point they’ll be the one to pop the bubble.
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• 2026-03-31中性原文
  Hi Ron, so there's two different parts to it: 1. Hyperscalers ( $ORCL, $META, $AMZN): They're spending more than they have with profit ( $GOOGL is the rare exception, and $AAPL isn't really spending much relatively). So markets are worried less worried it's translating into material revenue. Especially with companies like Oracle taking on immense amounts of debt, rate cuts were a large driving factor in why it's slightly more sustainable (if you look at debt interest, it's massive), and cutting rates drives both forward expansion and material amounts of savings. Due to the War in Iran, rising crude, former projections with cutting rates in 2026 are now gone. This is compounded that there are worries that their AI buildout supply chain gets disrupted. If you look at where their AI datacenter parts are made: - it comes from Taiwan - it comes from Korea - it comes from Japan It's global. While the US might look like it's fine, since it's insulated to Oil, LNG, helium, and others needed for the semiconductor supply chain. Our Asian partners are not in a long drawn out conflict. So when you look at companies in Asia that are more small and niche they are struggling. And this gets compounded tens of times until it reaches all the way down to the end Amazon Web Services AI datacenter (increased costs, lack of supply). 2. AI as a whole: Investors are very bullish on it. It's just how we get there, and America looks strangled by China optically. - America is spending way too much on it, with China and others distilling our latest models (need KYC endpoints), and reaping all the benefits. - As we scale our AI programs, it's becoming increasingly reliant on Chinese companies. I'd argue it's because America lacks the rare earths, which should be our #1 national security priority. This is needed to make new generations of AI hardware, robotic supply chains, and Space. They're all controlled by China and Russia. Even the leading "Western" companies, I've identified they're mainly relying on China/Russia still. And this is one of the biggest vulnerabilities in securing our frontier programs. If you look at photonics (how AI hardware is sped up by light), we no Western supply chain to fulfill our needs. It's $AXTI (in China), and Vital (in China) as the two main sources of materials needed to make them, that gets passed down to Japan, or other companies before they end up in US. If you look at our humanoid program (how we move AI to the real world), all the bodies of $TSLA Optimus are made in China. American supply chains lack the rare earths needed to make the components because it gets too expensive. 3. Disruption in the Middle East A large part of the recent drop is mainly due to liquidity. Our partners in the UAE, Middle East are largely funding private markets (think OpenAI) and a lot of their spend going to AI markets. They're also one of the biggest investors in Mag7 from Meta to Microsoft. If their oil fields continue getting disrupted they may have to pull out liquidity from US markets. This impacts both the amount of money these companies can spend on AI. As well as causing a drop in American markets from selling. If there's any takeway: Please make Rare Earths Amercia's #1 national security priority. President Trump already invested in $USAR, $MP, and a few individual names. But there are many more extremely critical, yet unprofitable companies that are needed to make AI, to self driving cars, to robotics. And we need to break our reliance on China / Russia.
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• 2026-03-14看多
  这消息相当令人心碎： $META 裁员 20% $ORCL 裁员 $AMZN 长期裁员 600,000 名员工，因为他们被机器人和 AI 取代。 这是一个反乌托邦的未来。 公司最终在没有人力劳动成本的情况下，获得创纪录利润。 唯一受益的方式： 投资 AI 作为对冲。 未来几年感觉像是逃离由 AI 替代造成的永久底层阶级的主要方式。 由 AI 带来的股本回报将流向股东。 而那些靠薪水度日、没有投资股票的人之间的差距，将继续扩大。 这不是未来。 - Opus 4.6 如今已经足够好，可以取代大多数软件工程师。 - Waymo 如今已经开始在 SF 等地取代出租车司机。 - 我们知道 $TSLA 人形机器人接下来会到来，因为它们如今已在中国广泛普及。 这一切正在发生。 伊朗的扰动只会对加速中的 AI 建设造成暂时影响。 AI 已经到达拐点，看起来不可避免。 你已经看到美国就业数据修正下调接近 1 Million，这是惊人的。 而且我们正在看到最新的 LLMs 由它们之前的模型构建，因为 AI 正在接近奇点（AI 主导的递归增长）。 投资于运行 AI 所需的算力和硬件所在领域： 来自数据中心/电力/电网板块： $NBIS, $XLU, $VRT, $BE AI 扩展所需的光子学板块： $LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, $TSEM 芯片所需的半导体板块： $NVDA, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC 芯片的内存板块： $MU, $SNDK, SK Hynix, Samsung 用于 hyperscaler AI 推理的 ASICs： $AVGO, $MRVL, Mediatek 确保芯片正常工作的良率板块： $TER, $AEHR, Advantest 以及 AI 所需的原材料或基板： $AXTI, $COPX, $SOI 以及许多其他领域，将成为对冲大规模 AI 替代的唯一、最大工具。 谁拥有算力的生产资料（瓶颈、材料、数据中心）： 谁就拥有 AI 的未来。
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