$GRRR · 海外大V持仓追踪

$GRRR 现在是什么情况？

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下面是最近 8 条提及 $GRRR 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2025-11-22看空原文
  The Neocloud Sector Tierlist. Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop: [S] Tier: $NBIS [A] Tier: $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ [C] Tier: $APLD, $CLSK [D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH [U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** Ranked in order from left to right. * : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited. **: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty. Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of: a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration) e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon) f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.
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• 2025-10-27看多
  Neocloud 论点经受住了时间考验。 1 个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这只是史上最大规模 AI 数据中心建设潮的开端，finx 上的每个人现在仍然处于早期。 我整体上非常看好 Neocloud 板块，但个人更集中配置 $NBIS，因为它具备最高的不对称回报潜力。
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• 2025-10-27看空原文
  @adenois @RJCcapital I sold out of $GRRR after the SEA deal seemed sketchy. I made a post about it in a few places like https://t.co/tzom3aAdSk
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• 2025-10-18中性原文
  Weekend Reflections ☁️ I just wanted to post every position I'm down on this year + lessons learned. ___ 1. $ETOR - ($62 → $38.6, DCA $48, -19.58%) 2. $VIRT - (~$38 → $33, -45%) 3. $SNAP - ($8.2 → $7.69, -6.2%) (new) 4. $SG - ($8.2 → $7.32, -10.73%) 5. $GRRR - ($20.5 → $16.99, -17.12%) 6. $FLY - ($30.2 → $26.5, -12.25%) (new) 7. $LTC - ($113 → $91.1, -19.3%) 8. $OPAD - ($4.61 → $2.94, -36.2%) 9. $CRM - (~$250 → ~$243, ~30%) 10. $AMZN - ($218 → $213) (new) 11. $RDDT - ($202 → $195) (new) 12. $WULF - ($14.5 → $14) (new) I post a ton of stocks, and I'm happy that there are only about 7 I've gotten wrong short-term (sorry if i miss one or two by accident) and about 5 that I didn't time the absolute bottom correctly. I still think they'll print in 2026, not too many losers though! Individual Reflections 1. $ETOR: Great stock fundamentally. Even down ~20%, I believe this will recover in 2026. 1/3 cash, growing at IBKR rates. It suffers from tax-harvesting effects (October/November) as hedge funds sell and rebuy in December. Lesson learned: None, Id do the same again. Holding for 2026. Trimmed slightly for tax harvest. 2. $VIRT: If I buy calls, probably shouldn't post publicly since it affects hedging flow. Trimmed for tax harvesting since we're nearing two more rate cuts (bullish for markets). Hedging worked but lost quite a bit. Lesson learned: Keep hedges to myself. Still think I'm directionally right, just wanted to tax harvest. 3. $SNAP: Posted around $8.2 when they converted memories to revenue. This is a 2026 play, not worried about short-term tax harvesting. Lesson learned: None. Holding for 2026. 4. $SG: Honestly, I just like the salad 🥗. It was $35+ earlier this year. I think it'll recover eventually, just a waiting game cause it's like 1 p/s now? Lesson learned: None. Medium-term hold. 5. $GRRR: Migrated into $WLAC after investigating their $1.4B contract more, seemed sus. Got baited by the $380M market cap vs. $1.4B revenue potential. Lesson learned: Trust my gut on suspicious companies. Could 5x if legit, but I don't trust it. Probably shouldn’t have entered. (Trimmed) 6. $FLY: Down ~12%, still a 2026 medium-lift play. Posted recently, could’ve timed better. Lesson learned: None, maybe better tax-harvest timing. 7. $LTC: Down ~20%. Crypto got nuked by liquidations + government shutdown delays ETF approvals. Lesson learned: Don’t margin crypto. Government shutdowns delay ETF approvals lol. 8. $OPAD: Sold earlier, but current prices are -36%. Meme stock I aped into. Lesson learned: Don’t touch meme stocks. 9. $CRM: ~30% loss due to short-dated options + missing earnings date. Swing trade gone wrong. Lesson learned: Always check earnings dates, was just a on-off mistake, dont think I've ever made this mistake before. 10. $AMZN: It’s Amazon. Moves down 1% sometimes. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 11. $RDDT: Thought $200 was bottom, dipped further. Averaged down to $190. Lesson learned: None. Just posted recently. 12. $WULF: Bought because all neoclouds were going up. Bought at $14.5, dipped to $14. Lesson learned: Don't ape into stocks. Could've timed better. _ Tax Harvesting Summary Trimmed most losers for EOY tax harvesting, except newer positions ($AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF) and medium-term plays like $FLY (holding through 2026) that I mentioned. TLDR: - Don't go hard into tax-harvested stocks end of year (e.g. $LULU, $ETOR, $SNAP). Wait for December if timing. - Stop trading meme-stocks like $OPAD. - Trust my gut when SEA-related companies seem suspicious ($GRRR). - Option flows affect less-liquid stocks (e.g. $VIRT). March calls could still print so other people buying might affect things, just wanted to tax harvest tho. Other trades like $AMZN, $RDDT, $WULF are very recent, maybe could've timed them better, but get the exact bottom. _ Overall, so far so good! I've lost count of how many 100%+ returns I've had... and the number of losers is still small, both for count and position size.
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• 2025-10-12看空原文
  @soulbiri1 I sold out of $GRRR for EOY tax harvesting and pivoted to $WLAC, I’ll post a write up tomorrow around my losses and strategies.
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• 2025-09-27看多
  NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本开支漏斗 为什么我把 $1.5M+ 投入 Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7 合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 拥有算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机型：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC 的矿企：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 有意造成的。 通常流经 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统计算的数万亿资本开支，现在会在它们无法承接来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，流入 NeoClouds。 这是十年一遇的机会，类似于 GPU 军备竞赛让 $NVDA 成为 $4T 公司；这次赌的是未来 5-10 年谁来为 AWS/Azure/等提供基础设施动力。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 17B）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 3B）、CRWV（由 NVDA 提供支持）都在以数百个百分点扩张（NBIS 从季度收入 150M 增长到可能 1.5B+），毛利率达 60-80%。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。主要原因是最富有的超大规模云厂商正在把资本开支导入小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：赢得超大规模云厂商订单 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN/等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure/等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是你获得数百 % 回报的方式，而不是在 Paypal 上做价值投资。顺势搭乘下一代公司。 所以空头论点通常围绕 - 执行风险（以前更具投机性，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司已有 4B+ 可用于执行） 人们总能担心执行问题，但 Microsoft 或 Google 不会在没有自己尽调的情况下签下如此大规模的 5-10 年合同。 - 高利率（主要说的就是你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 和其他公司有潜在惊人回报。 $NBIS 获得了 4B+ 融资，价格在每股 $138+（而现在是 $107）。$CIFR 获得融资，价格在每股 $16+，而现在是 $11。高于当前股价的融资是看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（合理担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使旧型号也保值，并仍能带来权益价值）。 - 估值（我仍认为我们才刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年收入扩张到 6B、毛利率 75%，26B 市值极其小。） - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU-as-a-service 并直接竞争。目前这些 Neoclouds 是 NVDA 防止算力集中到 Azure/AWS/等的答案。 - 超大规模云厂商自研芯片，如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还要很多年，因为他们仍在苦求 NVDA 算力，并签下了 5Y-10Y 合同。 无论如何，这些像 Nebius 这样的 neoclouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率来说真的被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像搭乘 Trump 当选时的 Crypto/TSLA，或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样，搭上 Neocloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会 YOLO 满仓买 calls，但从风险回报看，这些 5-20B 的小型 neoclouds 为 Google/MSFT/等、也就是 Mag7 的现金奶牛，提供 AI 工作负载动力，是值得的。（交易时间周期：8m - 1 year。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的单一非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
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• 2025-09-24中性原文
  @MMerrino569447 This is just an example of a recommended ETF I'd build for someone else. You can switch a small cap like $GRRR for $ABAT if you wanted, doesn't really matter.
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• 2025-09-19看多原文
  Thoughts on why I’m scaling my $NBIS position to $1M+ with a $225 PT: Thesis ______ When MSFT, GOOGL, and Mag7 are your customers like ALAB or CRED (when I took large positions in both sub $100) or before $NVDA or AVGO or TSM took off, a company's forward growth would likely explode in the 100%'s of percent. There are barely any companies in history where Mag7 are dependent on them. On top of that, when NVDA has every incentive to pump your stock as well.... NBIS becomes a stronger buy and has my highest conviction for 1Y timeframe. Moat + GPU lenders Critical Importance to NVDA _______ NVDA sees other hyperscalers like AMZN, GOOGL building out their own chips and reducing reliance. Answer? Build out GPU lenders eg. CRWV, by taking a stake and financing them, so Azure/Cloud/AWS can't replace NVDA. Access to GPUs becomes increasingly through these lenders and as we see with OpenAI, they no longer have the compute from MSFT and have to go to GOOGL. GOOGL also doesn't have enough compute so they go to WULF and others. MSFT goes to CRWV, NBIS and others, and big tech compute flows downstream to these GPU providers. NVIDIA has every reason to inflate GPU lenders like CoreWeave and NBIS to hedge against hyperscaler custom chips. And without compute, billions of dollars will flow to NBIS with NVDA propping them up. Macro Tailwind _______ 3x rate cut priced into Polymarket. If you saw my other post, triple rate cuts only happen once a decade (extremely positive for liquidity flowing into markets) + combined with end of year seasonality, which are positive for equities. On top of that, NBIS is a relatively smaller market cap, and relies on financing/debt to grow. When their interest burden drops, financing gets cheaper, and expansion looks more viable. NBIS is heavily valued on future earnings, and with rate cut projections, far our earnings of billions in rev from MSFT and other clients get marked UP. We're about to see a sharp re-rating after Fed meeting yesterday. Company Comparisons ________ If I had to choose NBIS -> CRWV -> WULF ->others weighing on potential to speculation tradeoffs. CRWV - NVDA clearly backing them, already large $63B+ MC. Could go way higher but growth potential with MSFT contract with NBIS, similar backlog, etc. at more than half the marketcap is why I chose them. $IREN, BITF, RIOT, $GRRR etc. - BTC miners pivoting to compute. I like them but they don't have the same de-risking as MSFT yet. WULF - I do like them since Google is backing them but NBIS conversion terms and MC relative to potential are better. Fundamentals ______ MC: 24.78B (When you compare to CRWV at 61B, which was still down 30% this year), now with similar revenue backlog, it has an easy potential to go to the same marketcap ($243+ a share). By 2026, with Microsoft deal accounted for, NBIS could be doing $5-6B total revenue with strong gross margins (≈70%). In 2027-2028, total revenue could reach $8-10B+, especially if base business (non-Microsoft) also grows aggressively. All with ~60-75% gross margins. This is insane but mainly due to NVDA supporting these GPU companies. Based on valuation, NBIS is more attractive than CRWV and less speculative than IREN or others without MSFT backing giving them 17B. Misc Thoughts ___ They already raised 4.1B+ and secured capex for the $17B MSFT contract. This was the biggest de-risking event and why I'd invest in NBIS at $90+ compared to something more speculative back at $50. There's likely other contracts from hyperscalers coming their way. I'd say easy path to $140, then maybe drop from convertible note, then up to $200. There's probably more specifics that I didn't get to like margin compression in a few years operating income depreciation risk etc. But this was the core of my investment thesis (macro, fundamentals, industry growth, moat + incentives) when I make investment decisions vs. swing trading and why NBIS is high conviction over the next year.
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