$MARA · 海外大V持仓追踪

$MARA 现在是什么情况？

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下面是最近 8 条提及 $MARA 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2025-11-22看空原文
  The Neocloud Sector Tierlist. Post Q3 earnings + Market Sector Drop: [S] Tier: $NBIS [A] Tier: $CIFR, $WULF, $IREN [B] Tier: $GLXY, $CORZ [C] Tier: $APLD, $CLSK [D] Tier: $WLAC, $DGDX, $WYFI [F] Tier, $CRWV*, $SLNH [U] Tier: $GRRR, $MARA, $DGDX, $CLSK, $BITF, $HIVE, $RIOT ** Ranked in order from left to right. * : Short-term pricing drops created compelling entries (e.g., $CRWV), but med-term (12m) attractiveness remains limited. **: Uncertain, decided not to rate them (but put them in tierlist photo as F). Some pure miners haven't fully pivot into HPC yet + too much contract uncertainty. Lot of people asked about updates post earnings, these are just personal thoughts based on weighted assessments of: a. Contract visibility and revenue certainty b. Resilience to macro tightening and credit conditions c. Balance sheet strength and margin profile d. HPC buildout risk (capacity execution and orchestration) e. Revenue growth trajectory (1–2 year horizon) f. Current market capitalization relative to revenue ramp and infrastructure value The whole Neocloud sector is compelling but some have clearly higher asymmetrical return over others as of Q3.
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• 2025-11-18看多原文
  If you look at historical patterns such as grayscale investments, which was the way to get crypto exposure from holding companies pre-ETF, they traded way under-NAV for the longest time. With many companies like $BMNR, you’re better off holding the underlying $ETH asset. With $MARA it’s a mix of holding $BTC as well as the mining business + optionally to transition to HPC. I would only argue $MSTR is an exception to holding companies due to how much $BTC they’ve accumulated and the potential for nationalization for the US government to get exposure to Bitcoin.
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• 2025-11-02中性原文
  With $IREN people keep making the argument about ~3 GW capacity at a ~17B marketcap, deserves to be X marketcap. $RIOT has a similar capacity too: 1GW Corsicana, 700MW Rockdale, and misc with ~3GW capacity (total if you combine BTC mining + pipeline). ~7B marketcap $MARA also has 1.7GW with 3+ GW pipeline as well. ~6.7B marketcap $IREN did make the HPC pivot compared to the other two but we've definitely seen that priced in with the 480%+ runup. Fair note is that analysts from H.C. Wainright have said "IREN AI cloud business has reached a point of irrational exuberance." Before, we looked solely at capacity, but markets will start pricing in margins and execution risk. It's up to your decision whether you think $IREN can execute and scale into HPC like $CRWV spent years and billions doing. Or if they can do so when $ORCL, a 750B hyperscaler failed to do so with 14% gross margins. Also if it were that easy Riot and Mara and other high GW capacity miners would have just full-sent HPC and would reach similar marketcap re-ratings too. That's the downside risk people don't like talking about. However, upside is that capacity/infrastructure = higher revenue potential that you mentioned.
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• 2025-11-02中性原文
  It's nuanced, but you can definitely compare capacity and pipeline with $IREN, $RIOT, $MARA, since capacity doesn't change. The main difference is optionality (how well a company can repurpose capacity as demand shifts). If you were to argue $IREN is better positioned, sure. With $MARA, you mentioned container-based ASIC farms as an example. However, they can still be retrofitted to HPC, it's just slightly more costly. $IREN as you mentioned, designed built data centers with raised floors, fiber interconnects, HVAC/liquid cooling. so it does well for HPC. There's different levels to pivots, but capacity remains the same through pivots. The point I was making was that it's multifaceted with margins, and everything else. You can't just say X Capacity = X revenue/Marketcap , otherwise you can easily just point to $MARA and $RIOT with similar capacities with $IREN. But whether or not optionality is worth a 10B difference, I don't know.
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• 2025-11-02看空原文
  Also when I post about comparisons between $IREN and $NBIS or talking about $IREN having comparable capacity to $RIOT and $MARA, and saying margins at scale matter more than compute, I'm not bearish on IREN, just giving the reality of the situation. Same when people try claiming they have 92% gross margins, they don't when yo factor in deprecation and other expenses. They just went into another category and if you normalize it with how other HPC companies do accounting for their gross margins, margins are a lot less. But that doesn't mean it's bad, there's always tradeoffs.
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• 2025-10-27看多
  Neocloud 论点经受住了时间考验。 1 个月后： $CRWV 120.34 → 135.64 (+12.7%) $NBIS 107.70 → 126.49 (+17.5%) $WULF 10.63 → 13.69 (+28.8%) $IREN 41.68 → 64.69 (+55.2%) $CIFR 11.47 → 20.70 (+80.4%) $BITF 2.54 → 4.51 (+77.6%) $WYFI 22.83 → 36.52 (+59.9%) $GRRR 19.90 → 16.95 (−14.8%) $SLNH 2.75 → 2.81 (+2.2%) $RIOT 17.69 → 23.01 (+30.1%) $MARA 16.13 → 19.61 (+21.6%) $CLSK 12.96 → 20.21 (+56.0%) $HUT 33.16 → 49.95 (+50.6%) 这只是史上最大规模 AI 数据中心建设潮的开端，finx 上的每个人现在仍然处于早期。 我整体上非常看好 Neocloud 板块，但个人更集中配置 $NBIS，因为它具备最高的不对称回报潜力。
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• 2025-10-11中性原文
  Based Friday Market Close (-3.6% SPY day), Thoughts and Explanations Strong Buy $IBIT $LTC $WLAC $NBIS $MP $TSM (For Next Year) $ETOR $DKNG $SNAP Buy $UPWK $CRDO $ALAB $AMZN $META $UNH $SG $TGT $BULL $FLY $CIFR $WULF $IREN $GLXY $SMCI $DELL $MRVL Hold $RKLB $HOOD $RBRK $MU $HOOD $GRAB $MARA $RIOT $NVO $RR $ELOSE $FLNC $SEI $PLTR Sell $CRCL $ETH $BMNR $PL $BKSY Strong Sell $RGTI $OKLO $IONQ $QBTS $QUBT _ Explanations: IBIT - Dumped to $104k, Bitcoin demand has been institutional, tariff fears overblown, and caused one of the biggest liquidation events in history. IMO post-liquidation is the best time to buy crypto. Polymarket still pricing in 55% chance to $130K EOY, but either way Bitcoin is always a good buy long term. LTC - Down 24% in one day. People on 10X margin were likely frontrunning ETF and got liquidated one exchanges. Probably the best time I've seen to buy sub $98 because ETF will likely get approved when government shutdown stops. WLAC - One of the best Neocloud SPAC IPO 1000% opportunities ever at $600m valuation because of their partnership with Fluidstack (the ones that helps WULF + CIFR get backstopped by GOOGL), and both of those are $4-7B. For context they're IPOing Q4, so you might need to wait ~2 months. NBIS - Strongest conviction buy I've had, $400 aggressive PT for next year out of any Neocloud. MP - National security risk for rare earths (+other rare materials stocks from exploration to Lithium batteries will likely perform well). TSM - Backbone of all AI Infrastructure _ Strong Buy Tax Harvesting Bucket of Stocks (Might need to wait for next year) ETOR - Way too oversold at $38, likely tax harvesting event going on compounding losses. DKNG - Fundamentally a growth stock. Revenue numbers are insane given market cap but they're -15% yearly low. Likely compounded by tax harvesting unaffected by Macro. SNAP - If you read my thesis, they're doing 1.3B quarterly revenue off a 13B marketcap... I'm convinced they will re-rate next year after lowering opex + increasing revenue from monetizing GCP storage. It's just a matter of when the market will price this in, but this is 1Y+ out. Post investors aren't patient. Again likely affected by EOY tax harvesting due to performance so far. _ Buys UPWK - Down 4.5% from yesterday, amazing fundamentals, ~800m y/y rev off 70%~ or 80~ gross margins thats growing, 200m buybacks, 2.2B market cap. Likely affected by Russell selloff. CRDO - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. ALAB - Data Center Trade, Mag7 uses them. AMZN - It's materially affected by 100% Chinese tariffs but they won't lose anything, since it gets passed onto the merchant or customers. META - Probably less ad revenue by Chinese tariffs (eg. Chinese vendors like Temu, might not buy adspace), buy just based on -6% 1m low + Mag7 laggard with Amazon, I like it more. UNH - Healthcare not really impacted 100% Chinese Tariff or rare earths. SG - It's down likely due to bad performance + tax harvesting but it's almost 1 P/S lol. TGT - I'd put it Strong Buy due to dividend catalyst + 5Y low just now, but haven't dont enough research on the effect on Chinese tariffs on the stock yet. BULL - Growing at similar rates asHOOD, their fundamentals aren't exactly great for the market cap but you would invest based on retail customer base and the future potential for monetization. FLY - I did a DD on this earlier but Medium Lift Payload likely to succeed with Northrop in 2027, it takes a TON of patience for a potential 1000% moonshot. CIFR - Neocloud trade, always bullish. Like Meta X CRWV, more details likely to come soon. WULF - Neocloud trade bullish. IREN - Neocloud trade bullish. Their funding round was at some number 70%+ of their stock price if I remember correctly, which is a bullish tell (eg. NBIS and CIFR both hit that after their fundraising round). GLXY - Part of Neocloud trade. MRVL - It's not really priced in that it's growing 56% Y/Y like NVDA. SMCI - Data center/stargate buildout DELL -Data center/stargate buildout _ Sell CRCL - I will keep repeating this but COIN is better than Circle unless Circle can show they can monetize USDC outside from interest income. Because COIN literally gets 50% revenue sharing and on top of that 100% of the revenue on its platform. ETH - I will keep repeating this but I will not personally buy above $3000. So even if it dips 16% (you can take the chance of a swing trade, back up to $4k+), there's always the chance it keeps cascading down below $3k and I've lost track of how many times this has happened in history. BMNR - Tied with ETH fundamentally. PL - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. BKSY - Space stocks have gone up a lot, I think with stuff like RGTI and others, fundamentals haven't mirrored it's marketcap. Strong Sell RGTI - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation OKLO - market cap extremely disconnected from valuation IONQ - market cap disconnected from valuation QBTS - market cap disconnected from valuation -market cap disconnected from valuation There's obviously a macro overhead with China x USA trade wars going on, but none of this was new information (Chinese rare earth export controls have been known for awhile + US has already been tarrifing Chinese goods) We're heading into 2x more rate cuts priced in at 70% and large corrections to cleanse the overvalued froth and liquidate margins (eg. Crypto), will help the market go to higher highs. I will always recommend shares because with good companies, if you wait long enough they will likely outperform (but short term underperform if there's random macro risk). Mid term I'm the most bullish on Neoclouds for the next year during the rapid AI buildout -> Robotics/Space likely next frontier after that.
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• 2025-09-27看多
  NeoCloud 论点：超大规模云厂商资本开支漏斗 为什么我把 $1.5M+ 投入 Neoclouds，以及为什么这可能带来 200-300%+ 的回报。 🔹 分类 Mag7 合同：$CRWV, $NBIS ✅, $WULF, $CIFR ✅ 拥有算力：$IREN ✅, $BITF 投机型：$WYFI, $GRRR ✅, $SLNH 转向 HPC 的矿企：$RIOT, $MARA, $CLSK, $HUT 论点： Mag7 的 AI 算力紧张，这是 $NVDA 有意造成的。 通常流经 AWS、MSFT Azure、Google Cloud 用于传统计算的数万亿资本开支，现在会在它们无法承接来自 Anthropic、OpenAI、Gemini 等的新 AI 负载时，流入 NeoClouds。 这是十年一遇的机会，类似于 GPU 军备竞赛让 $NVDA 成为 $4T 公司；这次赌的是未来 5-10 年谁来为 AWS/Azure/等提供基础设施动力。 NBIS（来自 MSFT 的 17B）、CIFR / WULF（来自 GOOGL 的 3B）、CRWV（由 NVDA 提供支持）都在以数百个百分点扩张（NBIS 从季度收入 150M 增长到可能 1.5B+），毛利率达 60-80%。 这种收入增长在历史上几乎闻所未闻。主要原因是最富有的超大规模云厂商正在把资本开支导入小公司。 NVDA / TSM（2022->）：为超大规模云厂商提供 GPU CRDO / ALAB（2024 ->）：赢得超大规模云厂商订单 -> 抛物线式增长。 NBIS/CIFR/IREN/等（2025 - ）AWS/Azure/等 -> 来自 AI 算力的抛物线式增长 这就是你获得数百 % 回报的方式，而不是在 Paypal 上做价值投资。顺势搭乘下一代公司。 所以空头论点通常围绕 - 执行风险（以前更具投机性，现在像 NBIS 这样的公司已有 4B+ 可用于执行） 人们总能担心执行问题，但 Microsoft 或 Google 不会在没有自己尽调的情况下签下如此大规模的 5-10 年合同。 - 高利率（主要说的就是你 CRWV），这就是为什么 NBIS、CIFR 和其他公司有潜在惊人回报。 $NBIS 获得了 4B+ 融资，价格在每股 $138+（而现在是 $107）。$CIFR 获得融资，价格在每股 $16+，而现在是 $11。高于当前股价的融资是看涨信号。 - GPU 折旧（合理担忧，但它几乎像石油，即使旧型号也保值，并仍能带来权益价值）。 - 估值（我仍认为我们才刚开始。如果 NBIS 明年收入扩张到 6B、毛利率 75%，26B 市值极其小。） - NVDA 可能推出自己的 GPU-as-a-service 并直接竞争。目前这些 Neoclouds 是 NVDA 防止算力集中到 Azure/AWS/等的答案。 - 超大规模云厂商自研芯片，如 TPU、Trainium。但可能还要很多年，因为他们仍在苦求 NVDA 算力，并签下了 5Y-10Y 合同。 无论如何，这些像 Nebius 这样的 neoclouds 相对于远期收入/毛利率来说真的被低估了。 我们仍然非常早期。确保像搭乘 Trump 当选时的 Crypto/TSLA，或 OpenAI 发布时的 NVDA 一样，搭上 Neocloud 浪潮。 当然，这高度投机，我不会 YOLO 满仓买 calls，但从风险回报看，这些 5-20B 的小型 neoclouds 为 Google/MSFT/等、也就是 Mag7 的现金奶牛，提供 AI 工作负载动力，是值得的。（交易时间周期：8m - 1 year。） 这是 2025-2026 年最好的单一非对称 AI 基础设施交易。
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