$SHOP · 海外大V持仓追踪

$SHOP 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $SHOP 什么？

下面是最近 3 条提及 $SHOP 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2025-12-05中性原文
  A short seller firm @Hedgeye is now shorting Nebius $NBIS. The stock price is now $97.8. Their claim? Nebius is Coreweave 2.0. Coreweave [ $CRWV ]: - Small diversification in customers, mainly hyperscalers, ~quarter of their backlog is OpenAI. - $1.8B in cash left - $1.3B+/yearly in debt interest from toxic financing at 8-10% interest. Same thing as Nebius right? Nebius [ $NBIS ]: - Highest diversification in the Neocloud market of customers from $META, $MSFT, governments, $SHOP, Mistral, $NOW, and many others. - $4.8B+ in cash left - ~$76.6M/yearly from note structure 40%+ OTM at ~2% interest. - FSD level 4 Robotaxi self driving car segment that is of critical importance to $UBER (last round $375M with $UBER) to compete vs Waymo. - AI training segments funded by Bezos and used by $AMZN, Anthropic, and others - 28% in subsidiary that most of the public companies from $TSLA, $NET, Tiktok, $META and so on use - 4 subsidiaries growing 100% Y/Y alongside their core operational business, with Tripleten/Toloka adding to net income every year. Same company.
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• 2025-11-27中性原文
  $NBIS is about to leapfrog $CRWV, here's why: Among $TSLA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and Hyundai, Nebius [ $NBIS ] owns 1 of only 4 FSD-LVL 4 US Robotaxi companies: Avride. What people also don't know is this: $NBIS owns Toloka, growing 140% Y/Y. Used by Anthropic, Hugging Face, $AMZN, $MSFT,  Servicenow, and $SHOP for training artificial intelligence models, Toklo is likely valued around $700M-$1.2B in its latest round by Jeff Bezos's venture arm.  Nebius owns a majority stake (roughly ~60%), but the market is mispricing how their subsidiary companies grows at extreme rates alongside their core business.   While not as dominant as Avride or Clickhouse, Toloka represents a meaningful piece the Nebius investment thesis given their growth rate. We’ve seen Scale AI ( $29B ) get acquired by $META recently (technically ~49%) to get a sense of market size, and we’ve seen customers from $GOOGL and OpenAI defect due to conflict of interest concerns, given added value to Toloka. 

Google and OpenAI reportedly cut ties with Scale after Meta's acquisition. Google alone had $200M budgeted for Scale in 2025. Even capturing 10-20% of that displaced spend would materially boost Toloka's revenue. Management guided $50-70M for 2025. The bull case assumes they hit $70M+ (the upper bound or exceed it). Given they grew 140% in 2024, this isn't unreasonable if enterprise deals convert. The math: $70M × 25x = $1.75B. At $80M with 25-30x (if momentum is exceptionally strong), you get toward $2-2.5B.  But given their growth rate we’ll likely see:

Base case (12-15x multiple): $700M-$1B (currently) -> $900M-$1.3B 1Y forward. Bull Case 20-25x: $1.2-1.75B (currently) -> $1.5-2.5B 1Y forward Revenue grew 140% year-over-year in 2024 to approximately $26.4 million, with 2025 guidance of $50-70 million (90-165% Y/Y growth). And with a general bull-case sceanrio, we might see an additional ~$1.4B in subsidiary value added to Sum of Parts in 1 year time.  In multiple years time, that value might bring in $3B, $6B, $9B alone if the both the company and market grows.  In short, the market is still valuing Nebius’s subsidiaries as if they were slow-moving, commoditized businesses instead of high-value compounding at triple-digit rates. The true alpha from investors understanding that the market is mispricing $NBIS basket of hyper-growth companies. $NBIS with multiple triple-digit-growth subsidiaries benefits from parallel value creation: each business scales independently, but their progress reinforces the parent company's valuation.
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• 2025-11-17看多
  Nebius [ $NBIS ] 价格为 $86.69，是目前剩下的最纯粹 Neocloud 和 AI 基础设施非对称机会。 这是未受 $CIFR | $WULF 和托管服务提供商影响、收入最高的 Neocloud，并且没有： - $IREN、$ORCL 因全栈执行而面临的困扰性不确定性。 - $CRWV、$APLD 以及其他公司面临的高息债务。 - $CLSK、$BITF、$WYFI、$SLNH 以及其他公司所缺乏的、与超大规模云厂商合同相关的大规模收入确定性问题。 在 AI 板块被恐惧笼罩、市场普遍下跌之后： Nebius 正在推进：明年 ARR 中值 $8B、现金 $4.7B+、企业客户多元化（来自 $META、$MSFT、$ACN、$SHOP、政府）、高速增长的投资组合公司，以及经验证的全栈高利润率业务。 在需求极度旺盛、执行不确定性（利润率），以及与当前困扰市场的 OpenAI 合同依赖和信贷收紧问题相隔离的情况下： 就非对称上涨空间而言，没有任何东西能接近 Nebius。 你只是在等待公司执行兑现。
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