$XOM · 海外大V持仓追踪

$XOM 现在是什么情况？

最近有人说了 $XOM 什么？

下面是最近 3 条提及 $XOM 的公开帖，按时间倒序。每条都附原帖链接，可自行核对。

• 2026-02-28中性原文
  Hope you all hedged with Pistachios. Israel is now airstriking Iran. Immediate Beneficiaries: Oil (Energy) - $XLE, $CVX, $XOM, Defense - $AVAV, $NOC, $LASR, $LPTH, $RTX, $AVAV, $LMT, $NOC Save Haven Assets - Gold, Silver Shipping - $FRO, $STNG Pistachios This might just be a case of trading blows -> Israel fires some shows -> Iran fires some back -> they get shot down by the US so they can claim they retaliated Then all is well. My opinion is markets freak out for the weekend and overnight but recover shortly after they realize war is bullish for America. But if US follows-up and invades, then the Military/Oil trade is back.
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• 2026-02-28中性原文
  Here's my read on the market: The US/Israel Regime Change + Strike on Iran has already been front-run by institutions. Buying Defense/Oil at ATHs and selling risk-assets may be a mistake, as it should have been done a month ago. The data is extremely abnormal: Oil/Energy from $CVX, $XOM, and $XLE are all up 22-26% YTD. Large defense contractors from $NOC to $LMT also have increased 27-36% YTD. Majority of the run happening late January, when intelligence reported a strike on Iran was imminent targeting regime change. For reference: - $LMT 1 Year return is 46.12%. Lockheed made majority of its gains (32.39%) in the past month-two alone. It's likely multifaceted with the $1T defense budget, but the biggest tell was the massive run-up in oil like $CVX, $XLE, and crude oil expecting disruption in the middle east. The Iran situation is completely different from Venezulea, where everyone was caught off guard. With Venezulea traders and institutions were on equal footing as companies like Gold Reserve gapped up 100% same-day. But with Iran, it was probably one of the most telegraphed attacks in history and most institutions have already completely re-positioned (hence the major sell-off in high beta and oil/defense going up over the past month). So selling existing "high-risk" assets when they're already at lows to reposition into, oil, and other defense contractors at ATHs after an abnormal 1M 20%+ rally might be a mistake. Majority of other retail is expected to do this and cause some volatility during illiquid hours (but in these cases, doing the opposite might lead to higher returns) I could be wrong, but for me personally, I've already hedged with defense and oil leading up to the event. Many of my hedges are up abnormal amounts, and I was planning on rotating those into any major selloffs that happen in high beta assets. And my thought process was, institutions would likely do the same. TLDR: Rotating your high-beta assets after they've already sold off into oil/defense at ATHs that have already been frontrun by institutions, might not be the best idea.
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• 2026-01-04看多原文
  US now has control over Venezuela $17T+ Oil and $2T+ Mineral reserves. This is the Gold Rush of 2026. If your first thought was profiting on the situation, here's how: $GRZ.V ($289.61M) | $RMLFF ($582m) - $8.1B+ in claims from Gold Reserves. Over 45 times (4500%+) upside in pure assets if the full amount gets paid out to Gold Mining LTD. Gold Reserves ( $GRZ.V) - Basically, Gold Reserve filed a new $7 billion claim (Gold Reserve v. Venezuela II) for the expropriation of their stake in the Siembra Minera project (Brisas/Cristinas mines). They already won a $1.1B arbitral award, which is 5x their share price (floor). But, the full claim is unlikely as in a US-led reconstruction, Venezuela won't have the cash to pay $8.1B. Instead, Gold Reserve would swap these massive debts for control of Siembra Minera rights back, one of the largest undeveloped gold/copper deposits on earth. Which presents extremely considerable upside (but this is higher risk). Rusoro Mining ( $RMLFF ) – The "Citgo Auction" Current Market Cap: ~$582M USD Claim Value: ~$1.87 Billion (including interest) Unlike many others, Rusoro has attached its claim to the ongoing Delaware Court auction of PDV Holding. If the CITGO auction clears at a reasonable price, Rusoro gets paid in US Dollars, likely in 2025. This would result in a cash injection of ~$1.8B into a company trading at ~$580M. This implies a ~200% to 300% return from current levels TLDR: $RMLFF (Rusoro) - ~3x return driven by the CITGO Auction in the USA (High probability, lower multiple). TLDR: $GRZ (Gold Reserve) - potential ~45x return driven by Regime Change/Nation Building and swapping debt for mining rights (Lower probability, massive multiple). What else? ConocoPhillips ( $COP, $119B MC) - Owed $10B+. They are the "whale" of creditors. This is extremely considerable amount of assets, but less impactful compared to $GRZ.V. Chevron $CVX - Never fully left. They have been operating under a special OFAC license (General License 41). ExxonMobil $XOM - Claims ~$1.6B Tidewater ( $TDW ): Claims ~$80M O-I Glass ( $OI ): Claims ~$700M, 35% cash injection relative to market cap. This is a sleeper hit. If they get their $700M from the Citgo sale, it dramatically improves their balance sheet.
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